***NOAA'S ACQUISITION & GRANTS OFFICE, WESTERN ACQUISITION DIVISION-BOULDER, ALASKA FISHERIES SCIENCE CENTER (AFSC) INTENDS TO NEGOTIATE, ON A SOLE SOURCE BASIS, UNDER AUTHORITY OF FAR 13.106-1(b)(1), WITH ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY, OUT OF TEMPE, AZ TO PROVIDE GULF OF ALASKA CLIMATE SURVEY DATA AND ANALYSIS TO COMPLETE STAGES 2 AND 3 OF ONGOING RESEARCH.

***THE SOLE SOURCE DETERMINATION IS BASED ON THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION'S (NOAA) REQUIREMENT THAT ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY (ASU) IS THE SOLE PROVIDER WHO CAN PROVIDE THIS GULF OF ALASKA CLIMATE SURVEY DATA AND ANALYSIS BECAUSE THEY EMPLOY DR. KAILIN KROETZ WHO HAS WORKED WITH AFSC TO DEVELOP THE MAIN DATASET THAT IS PRESENTLY BEING USED IN STAGE 1 OF THIS PROJECT. THIS CONTRACT IS TO CONTINUE RESEARCH AND COMPLETE STAGES 2 AND 3 OF THE CLIMATE SURVEY.

THE TASKS FOR THIS PROJECT INVOLVE DATA ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT FOR THE DESIGN OF A SURVEY TO EXAMINE EQUITY IN CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES OF ALASKA FISHERIES STAKEHOLDERS. THIS IS WORK FOR THE GOACLIM2 PROJECT AT NOAA AFSC, EXTENDING AN UNDERSTANDING OF FISHERMEN'S CHOICE SET OF ADAPTATION STRATEGIES DEVELOPED UNDER GOACLIML TO PREDICTIVE MODELS OF THOSE CHOICES IN RELATION TO SPECIFIC STRESSORS.

IN THIS EARLIER WORK, THEY CONSTRUCTED THE DATASET FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES (INCLUDING AKFIN LANDINGS DATA, ADFG PERMITTING DATA, AND COMMUNITY INFORMATION), SUMMARIZED THE DATA, AND USED THE DATA IN QUANTITATIVE MODELING (KROETZ ET AL. 2019). AS A RESULT, DR. KROETZ IS FAMILIAR WITH AND HIGHLY-QUALIFIED TO CONTINUE WORKING WITH THE DATA. DR. KROETZ'S UNIQUE KNOWLEDGE OF THE DATA AND THE METHODS NECESSARY FOR THIS WORK WILL ALLOW WORK TO IMMEDIATELY COMMENCE ON SEPTEMBER 1, 2023 AND WILL MEET TIMELINES AS SPECIFIED IN THE STATEMENT OF WORK.

DR. KROETZ ALSO HAS THE APPROPRIATE EXPERTISE AND STUDENT SUPPORT TO COMPLETE STAGES 2 AND 3 OF THE PROJECT. SHE IS CURRENTLY SERVING ON A NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE-SPONSORED NATIOM ACADEMIES OF SCIENCE PANEL ON ASSESSING EQUITY IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF FISHERIES MANAGEMENT BENEFITS: DATA AND INFORMATION AVAILABILITY AND IS THEREFORE AT THE FOREFRONT OF APPLIED INTERDISCIPLINARY WORK TO IMPROVE KNOWLEDGE RELATED TO EQUITY IN FISHERIES. SHE ALSO ADVISES INTERDISCIPLINARY STUDENTS WITH EXPERIENCE WORKING WITH SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DATA AND THE QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE SKILLS TO SUPPORT DR. DAN LEW IN SURVEY DESIGN AND TESTING OF THE PILOT.

ADDITIONALLY, DR. KROETZ HAS DEEP KNOWLEDGE RELATED TO ALASKA FISHERIES THAT WILL SUPPORT CONTEXT-SPECIFIC KNOWLEDGE BEING INTEGRATED THROUGHOUT ALL STAGES OF THE PROJECT. SHE SERVES OR THE NORTH PACIFIC FISHERIES MANAGEMENT COUNCIL SCIENTIFIC AND STATISTICAL COMMITTEE AND HAS NUMEROUS PUBLICATIONS RELATED TO ALASKA FISHERIES INCLUDING AN ASSESSMENT OF CROSS-FISHERY PERMITTING (ADDICOTT ET AL. 2018), ANALYSIS OF SPILLOVERS FROM ALL ALASKA CATCH SHARE PROGRAMS (KROETZ ET AL. 2019), EVALUATION OF THE PACIFIC HALIBUT AND SABLEFISH IFQ MARKETS (KROETZ, SANCHIRICO, AND LEW 2015) AND ASSESSMENT OF THE GAF LEASING PROGRAM (KROETZ ET AL. 2018).

DR. KROETZ IS UNIQUELY QUALIFIED TO PERFORM ALL ASPECTS OF THIS WORK. HER KNOWLEDGE OF THE REQUISITE DATA FOR THE ANALYSIS, KNOWLEDGE OF ALASKA FISHERIES AND MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS, AND EXPERTISE WITH STATISTICAL AND ANALYTICAL TOOLS THAT WILL BE APPLIED IN THIS PROJECT ENSURE THAT THE PROJECT WILL BE COMPLETED ON TIME.

ANY NEW CONTRACTOR SELECTED FOR THIS PROJECT WOULD LIKELY NEED CONSIDERABLE TIME TO SUFFICIENTLY UNDERSTAND THE DATA, THE FISHERIES AND MANAGEMENT CONTEXT, AND THE ANALYTICAL TOOLS NEEDED, WHICH WOULD ADD CONSIDERABLE EXPENSE AND TIME TO THE PROJECT.

***THIS NOTICE OF INTENT IS NOT A REQUEST FOR COMPETITIVE PROPOSALS AND NO SOLICITATION PACKAGE IS AVAILABLE. HOWEVER, FIRMS THAT BELIEVE THEY CAN FULLY MEET THE GOVERNMENT'S REQUIREMENTS MAY SUBMIT SUBSTANTIATING DOCUMENTATION IN WRITING TO THE IDENTIFIED POINT OF CONTACT WITHIN 15 DAYS AFTER PUBLICATION OF THIS SYNOPSIS. SUCH DOCUMENTATION WILL BE EVALUATED SOLELY FOR THE PURPOSE OF DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT TO CONDUCT THIS PROCUREMENT ON A COMPETITIVE BASIS. A DETERMINATION BY THE GOVERNMENT NOT TO CONDUCT A COMPETITIVE PROCUREMENT, BASED UPON RESPONSES TO THIS NOTICE, IS SOLELY WITHIN THE DISCRETION OF THE GOVERNMENT. ORAL COMMUNICATIONS ARE NOT ACCEPTABLE IN RESPONSE TO THIS NOTICE.